STEPHEN Harper's Conservatives are the most popular federal party in Manitoba, but they still trail the Liberals in the key battleground of Winnipeg, a new poll shows. With less than a week left in the campaign, Probe Research's survey forecasts a tight three-way race for the province's 14 seats. The poll also shows the NDP has been gaining momentum since the 2000 election. Probe's survey of 1,000 Manitobans shows the Conservatives have the support of 37 per cent of decided votes. The Liberals are the choice of 30 per cent of voters, while the NDP are at 27 per cent. The Greens have grabbed the support of five per cent of voters. The poll, conducted June 10-21, is considered accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Probe president Scott MacKay said Manitobans are clearly expressing anger at the Liberals over the sponsorship scandal. The Grits have fallen three points from their 2000 election total, when they captured five of the city's eight seats. "Liberal support has eroded; there is no question that they are down,'' he said. While the Conservatives are in front and dominate rural Manitoba, MacKay said the newly unified party still has not consolidated the support of the old Canadian Alliance and Tories, which had a combined vote of 45 per cent in 2000. MacKay said the fact NDP support has jumped six percentage points since 2000 leaves the party in good position to hold seats like Winnipeg North and Winnipeg Centre, which are under Liberal attack. "In those closely contested races where the NDP are involved, I would give them those seats, so let's give Judy Wasylycia-Leis her seat and Pat Martin his seat," MacKay said. Although the Tories are ahead province-wide and the NDP has the momentum, the Liberals remain in front in the city. Liberal support in Winnipeg is at 37 per cent -- down from 38 per cent in 2000 -- while the NDP and Conservatives are tied at 29 per cent. But Probe's poll shows a pronounced Liberal drop in rural areas. There, the party is down to 20 per cent, compared to 25 per cent in the 2000 election. The Conservatives have the support of 48 per cent of rural Manitobans, while the NDP is up seven points to 23 per cent. The Conservatives, Liberals and NDP all said Probe's findings mirror what their internal tracking shows. "It confirms what we are experiencing at the doorstep," said Conservative spokesman Michael Richards. Richards said the Conservatives will use a Winnipeg rally on Friday, starring Harper, to try to make gains in target seats held by the Liberals, such as Charleswood-St. James Assiniboia. Treasury Board President Reg Alcock took comfort in the fact his Liberals have only dropped a point within Winnipeg since the 2000 campaign. "I think it is very encouraging for us in the city," said Alcock, co-chair of the Manitoba Liberal campaign. "I think it is good news for Glen Murray in Charleswood St. James and good news for Terry Duguid in Kildonan St. Paul.'' NDP parliamentary leader Bill Blaikie said the surge in NDP support should not only allow the party to hold to its four seats but also make gains. "I think Judy and Pat will be fine, and what is more interesting is Kildonan-St. Paul or Selkirk-Interlake, where you have either three-way races or two-way races with the NDP in there," said Blaikie (Elmwood Transcona). The latest national opinion poll suggests that the Liberals and Conservatives were in a dead heat, each with 33 per cent of the decided voters, less than a week before the June 28 election. The NDP had the support of 18 per cent and the Bloc Quebecois had 11 per cent nationally and 50 per cent in Quebec while the Green party had 4 per cent, the poll suggested. It found 20 per cent of voters were undecided. The poll, conducted by Environics and released yesterday, surveyed 1,500 adults, including 1,444 eligible voters, from June 17 to June 22. It is considered accurate to within 2.5 percentage points 19 times out of 20. In the key heartland of Ontario, the Liberals led the other parties with 40 per cent support compared to 35 per cent for the Conservatives and 19 per cent for the New Democrats.
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